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That would depend entirely on where you are getting the "expected refund" amount from. Since you've indicated that expected is more than what TurboTax is showing you, then I am reading this as that you've heard this or seen this calculated from another source. Therefore, if one source has some of the information and the other source does not have all of the information or even a slight difference of information, then this would explain the difference.
And at the end Turbo Tax shows you the net federal and state combined, but you will get the full refund and need to pay any tax due.
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