Some ideas.....
I would check over your return and see if you can see anything wrong especially in the payments section. Make sure you agree with all the amounts listed. Like is the difference the same or close to the refund you got last year? Maybe you put down that you applied last year's refund to this year? Or you put down you made a payment with an extension or paid an estimated payment that you didn't make?
A common error is showing an estimated payment on 1040 schedule 3 line 8 you didn't make or payment with an extension you didn't send in. Sometimes people start an extension form on purpose or accidentally and an amount gets entered for a tax due to send in with the extension.
Or you claimed Excess Social Security paid on Schedule 3 line 11. That happens when you are married and enter both spouse's W2s under the same name.
Or if you got any 1099Misc forms you didn't report it as self employment income on Schedule C and pay the SE tax on it. It might have showed up on 1040 Schedule 1 line 8 for Other Income instead of line 3 business income.
Or the IRS changed your income. A common thing they change is the taxable amount of any 1099R for pension, 401K or IRA distributions or conversions on 1040. And if you get Social Security and they increase some other income it will make more of your SS taxable.
Turbo Tax is a self prepared return. It has no way of knowing or checking that you entered something wrong or in the wrong place or entered something twice Or left something out. It doesn't check against any outside sources. The IRS has copies of all the W2s and 1099s your employer and banks/brokers, etc. sent in to match against. Turbo Tax only checks the calculations of what you entered. It is your responsibility to check it over before you file.
