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I think it's more like 200mil in desktop revenue according to the 10K, either way it's a legacy business in decline, about 1% of total revenue and declining 5% annually vs. online/live growing 8%.
@JohnQT I've been updating TT 2024 all year and my Fed/State tax due hasn't changed. You should save PDF of your return with all forms and worksheets that's really your official record, the s/w itself is only supported for 4 years anyway (TT 2021 is going to fall off possibly Oct 15th according to a reddit thread on this topic - I've seen folks say it will keep working once activated but new activations won't be possible, we'll see). Not to say they wouldn't fix some bug that affects your return but it's unlikely, but just compare the tax due showing in the s/w to your official filing PDF and if it's changed that's something you should be aware of anyway.
In terms of waiting/hoping for Intuit to reverse course on Win10 it seems unlikely imo, they've been messaging all year they "may restrict" and recently confirmed it won't install or run on Win10, so this was not a hasty decision and the ESU offering has been known for a while. To your point, they even went to the trouble of putting that notice window into TT 2024. I would think they know exactly how many users are affected and likely % that will simply upgrade in the next 6 months, move to online, move to Mac, or move to other s/w. In the last quarterly earnings statement they made reference to "yielding share" for "low average revenue per return" users (4% of desktop, 1% online) and they're fine with the attrition as long as higher revenue online/live is growing.
They're also ditching ItsDeductible, and as typical the past few years they are dropping MacOS 13 as it is unsupported by Apple as of this November. And it seems very unlikely they would want to support specialized versions of Win10 or expand into Linux for what would be a very small % of their overall user base.
@baldietax I upgraded my Windows 10 to 11 and all my installed programs back to and including 2019 still open and run. Even my very very old Word97 & Excel97.
@baldietax wrote:I think it's more like 200mil in desktop revenue according to the 10K...
I just tore through their 10K and it is actually worse than I thought. Initially I applied the wrong multiplier (which was solely a rough estimate) based on the number of units sold; the real multiplier is much lower and results in a little over $200 million as you indicated.
I now believe the elimination of DIY desktop products may be even sooner than I originally thought if the current trendline continues.
@VolvoGirl wrote:........I upgraded my Windows 10 to 11 and all my installed programs back to and including 2019 still open and run........
Yes, but did you have to re-activate? I believe that's the issue.
No I didn’t need to re activate. Even after I had to reinstall 2024 it didn’t ask me to activate or even download state which I didn’t understand.
@VolvoGirl wrote:.....Even after I had to reinstall 2024 it didn’t ask me to activate or even download state which I didn’t understand.
I suspect that might be because the requisite information was still in your Windows registry.
It's obvious (to me at least) why online sales/usage is growing and desktop/installed product usage is shrinking. More and more taxpayers are simply not earning enough to justify the filing complexity of a desktop product. Just complete that 1040EZ online and be done with it! I wish that my filing situation would allow that, but I'm thankful that my financial situation does not.
However, my financial situation really doesn't justify paying a CPA or tax attorney to do my filing for me either. The details are complicated but the numbers themselves are just not high enough to spend real money on someone I can absolutely trust to do it right (and absolutely sue them if they don't).
So it's all on me to meet my legal tax-paying obligations to Uncle Sam. TurboTax's desktop products were a great help for that but yeah it does look like I will soon be filling out IRS PDF forms either "manually" on my computer or via the old school method with pen and paper. Hope I can find that solar calculator laying around somewhere...
I spent 35 years as an IT guy and now in my retirement I get to look forward to being a wannabe CPA. What joy! 😋
@JohnQT wrote:.....more taxpayers are simply not earning enough to justify the filing complexity of a desktop product.
Perhaps, but coupled with the proliferation of phones and tablets, you have a potential death knell for a lot of PC/Mac installed software.
Also, if you have, as an example, a married couple with a couple or a few hundred thousand in W-2 income and capital gains but take the standard deduction, that's far from a complex return despite the fact that they earn well above average. Why would they need a desktop product with a relatively simple return and if they only need to file the one return?
There are those who might want or need a desktop product because they have 1031 exchanges, rental properties, Schedule C businesses, home offices, et al, and/or who need to file more than one return (e.g., for family members). However, they have to be in the minority of TurboTax users and possibly declining rapidly.
IMHO phones and tablets are simply not an appropriate environment for business, including completing tax returns. I'm sure that a lot of CEO and CIO types might disagree, but then I don't have an army of employed developers behind me to build the "dashboards" that they use to make their million or billion dollar market moving decisions (like getting rid of the TurboTax desktop product line). It's just little old me trying to keep up with the ever changing IT world, and there's no way that I could do that on a 4 inch interface, much less develop and test simple scripts and applications to workaround all of the BS out there (corporate and otherwise).
Ask me how many times I've had to help my wife figure out exactly where that little doodad that she ordered on her phone from Facebook marketplace is coming from, and when (hint: it's usually coming via ChinaPost, God knows when, and she had no way of knowing that due to the very limited environment in her mobile phone browser). And please don't get me started on how it's nearly impossible to right-click a link in a mobile browser to confirm that you are not being directed to some scam website or actual Malware Hell. YIKES! 😱
I don't claim to earn well above average, just that my returns tend to be... complicated (through no fault of my own, I have the IRS to thank for that). My tax checklist has reminders to address the following (as applicable for the tax year in question): rentals, MLPs, WHFITs, Section 1256 contracts & straddles and Form 6781, Schedule K-1, collectible capital gains and losses, cryptocurrency, FBAR & Form 8938 reporting, etc. I would wager that 90% of the online filers don't need to concern themselves with these specific issues, or simply refuse to bother with them. (There are recent posts here from new users asking what to do about failure to file tax returns, a question that I simply could never allow myself to be in a position to ask...)
My desktop PC business environment includes a repository for every tax year of all the documents that I believe would be reasonably required to survive an IRS audit. Some of that info includes data entered into worksheets which are nobody's business but my own. I simply don't trust that documentation and my actual tax returns to be properly protected in some third-party cloud (provided by Intuit or anyone else). Those providers can claim "end-to-end" and "data-at-rest" encryption all they want, but unless they have a method to let me the data owner exclusively hold the encryption keys then it's all just marketing hot air.
Yeah, I'm probably in the overall minority here with my filing situation (and also with my paranoia :^) but if any software company would like to step up to the plate I am certain they will find a continuing niche market for desktop-based tax preparation software. Such software at any reasonable price would still be cheaper than an actual CPA or tax attorney. And I'm sure there are also plenty of people like me who feel compelled to understand and work on every important aspect of their life themselves if possible, rather than farm that understanding and effort out to someone else.
If you've got this far reading my reply, thank you for reading my blog. 😂
@JohnQT wrote:My tax checklist has reminders to address the following (as applicable for the tax year in question): rentals, MLPs, WHFITs, Section 1256 contracts & straddles and Form 6781, Schedule K-1, collectible capital gains and losses, cryptocurrency, FBAR & Form 8938 reporting, etc. I would wager that 90%.....
Yeah, I would be willing to bet that the percentage of taxpayers who do not have to address those issues would exceed 99%. The problem, I think as we know, is that Intuit couldn't care less about even larger percentages in this arena (as in 5-10%) much less an infinitesimal number of users; that's the problem.
In the future, ss a result, taxpayers who have more complex returns will be relegated to whichever company decides to continue developing desktop tax prep software (regardless of whether importing the previous year is supported from other, discontinued, software) or simply taking their docs to a tax pro.
BTW, as an aside, I don't think you can rest assured that your privacy is 100% protected either with online or desktop software if you e-file through any provider's product (including TurboTax). Intuit is going to have information on their servers in order to transmit that data to the IRS in either modality.
Regarding using TurboTax for eFile, yeah that's a point of trust that I don't think can be avoided. I assume that there's some requirement for Intuit to eventually purge eFile data after it's been successfully transmitted; but of course there would be no way for any of us to verify that's actually being done.
It would be nice if the federal and various state eFile APIs were publicly documented somewhere (and IMO they should be, since we the taxpayers are paying for that infrastructure). I've just never looked into this so have no idea if they are.
everyone that files tax returns federal/state has a potential issue that can't be overcome. That is the IRS or state computer system being hacked.
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