I think it's more like 200mil in desktop revenue according to the 10K, either way it's a legacy business in decline, about 1% of total revenue and declining 5% annually vs. online/live growing 8%.
@JohnQT I've been updating TT 2024 all year and my Fed/State tax due hasn't changed. You should save PDF of your return with all forms and worksheets that's really your official record, the s/w itself is only supported for 4 years anyway (TT 2021 is going to fall off possibly Oct 15th according to a reddit thread on this topic - I've seen folks say it will keep working once activated but new activations won't be possible, we'll see). Not to say they wouldn't fix some bug that affects your return but it's unlikely, but just compare the tax due showing in the s/w to your official filing PDF and if it's changed that's something you should be aware of anyway.
In terms of waiting/hoping for Intuit to reverse course on Win10 it seems unlikely imo, they've been messaging all year they "may restrict" and recently confirmed it won't install or run on Win10, so this was not a hasty decision and the ESU offering has been known for a while. To your point, they even went to the trouble of putting that notice window into TT 2024. I would think they know exactly how many users are affected and likely % that will simply upgrade in the next 6 months, move to online, move to Mac, or move to other s/w. In the last quarterly earnings statement they made reference to "yielding share" for "low average revenue per return" users (4% of desktop, 1% online) and they're fine with the attrition as long as higher revenue online/live is growing.
https://investors.intuit.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1266/intuit-reports-strong-fourth-qua...
They're also ditching ItsDeductible, and as typical the past few years they are dropping MacOS 13 as it is unsupported by Apple as of this November. And it seems very unlikely they would want to support specialized versions of Win10 or expand into Linux for what would be a very small % of their overall user base.
