2 weeks ago, my estimated refund for next year was over $4,000. Today, it's showing me as owing $1,500, despite all of the same information. What changed?

[xmasbaby0]

No one can see any of your information, nor have you mentioned what you did to estimate your next refund.   Please provide some details.

[srs2017]

I used the tool in turbo tax. My point was, based on my income, deductions, etc. for the upcoming year, I was projected to get 4k+ back. With all of the same numbers, it now says I’ll owe. I wasn’t sure if there were changes in tax laws I needed to know. My deductions/credits are standard deduction, I have 1 dependent, child care credit (spend over 15k in daycare costs)

[Critter-3]

The estimater tool may have still been set on 2021 rules and for 2022 the CTC and day care credit have both returned to the pre 2021 rates.  

Try this IRS  tool instead : https://www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator

[xmasbaby0]

The taxcaster tool changed very recently to use 2022 tax rules.   You might have used it when it was still using 2021 rules.   For 2022, there is no recovery rebate credit and the child tax credit drops down from $3600 or $3000 to a maximum of  $2000.   The childcare credit is also less for 2022.