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In many cases you avoid a penalty if you are paid in full by January 31, or if the amounts you pay in quarterly payments are at least 90% of your total tax liability, or 100% of last year's tax, or 110% of last year's tax, depending on your income. However, since the tax system is pay-as-you-go, it is possible for the IRS to assess a penalty for underpayment for the first 3 quarters even if you get caught up by the fourth quarter. Certainly, the more you pay by January 15th, the less you will owe, and smaller your risk of penalty.
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