This was just announced 22 Mar. Will Turbo Tax be updated to reflect this change? I will be affected by this change and don't want to have to file additional forms after I file my taxes to get the penalty money back. I would much prefer Turbo Tax be updated and calculate the penalty correctly based on the new guidance.
Probably, but we don't know when.
As a matter of course, I always recommend that customers decline the program's offer to calculate a penalty anyway. The calculation is almost always off by a few dollars, and you end up getting a bill from the IRS anyway. It's better to decline the offer and wait for the IRS to bill you. Plus, if this is your first time with a penalty, you can apply for a waiver, and you can't do that if you already paid.
If you do pay an excess penalty that you don't owe, the IRS should automatically refund it, but it may take several weeks for them to figure it out.