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Yes, you could calculate your taxes due based on the $72k base bonus until you see your bonus will be higher. Then if it is higher, you will pay the additional amount in the quarter you receive the higher bonus.
If you do not want to overpay by a large amount this is the best way to do it. When you go to file your taxes, if you have one quarter where your bonus is larger, then you would simply need to file form 2210 to annualize your income showing the IRS that you paid what was due when it was due based on your income not being equal throughout the year. Doing this would avoid any underpayment penalties.
As long as you make the payments based on the income you received for the quarter, there really is not a risk. It will just be one additional form attached to your return that you can easily fill out on TurboTax. In fact, TurboTax will get to a screen if you have an underpayment penalty that says lets see if we can waive this penalty, then you will walk through the steps of entering when you received what. It would be a good idea to keep a log of your income by quarter to make it easier when you go to fill out form 2210.
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