I just completed my 2023 tax return. I understand that the IRMAA calculation uses the AGI plus tax-exempt interest.
Based on my 2022 tax return, I believe the 2024 IRMAA brackets were used to determine the adjustment this year. Is that correct?
If this is correct, based on my 2023 tax return, would the 2025 IRMAA brackets be used to determine the adjustment amounts in 2025?
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The IRMAA adjustment is calculated by the Social Security Administration. They normally use your tax return from two years earlier. So your 2024 IRMAA would be based on your 2022 tax return. Sometimes the tax return information from two years earlier is not available when the IRMAA has to be calculated. In that event they would use your tax return from three years earlier. See the following article on the Social Security Administration web site for more information.
Description of the Medicare Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount Determination Process
Here's some additional info at the link below as a reference you can check each month, if you wish, to see how the 2025 projected IRMAA is progressing.
A lot of folks like to get an idea of what their 2025 IRMAA bracket might be (based on 2023 tax return), so they can make financial decisions this year with that in mind. But there's no way to know for sure until after August 2024 (only 5 months of inflation data are currently in). If you wish, you can review the following website every month, and the author calculates the expected brackets after each month's inflation data is released. It's a good way to get some kind of idea, but again it all depends on what happens with inflation between now and August 2024.
https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irmaa-income-brackets.html
He explains how it's calculated and shows 2024 IRMAA, and you can keep scrolling down to 2025, where he estimates on the basis of the 5 out of 12 data months so far. The next update should be mid-March when the February inflation number is released. He even talks a little about 2026 even though there are no numbers for 2026 yet.
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