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The rule is if you think you'll owe (line 78, Form 1040, or line 50, Form 1040A) more than $1,000
OR
you either expect your withholding and refundable credits to be less than the smaller of
90% of the tax shown on your 2017 tax return, or
100% of the tax shown on your 2016 tax return.
If you just use your current year (2017) taxes for your 1040ES, then you'll be paying 100% of the 2017 taxes, which will make you safe from penalties.
The rule is if you think you'll owe (line 78, Form 1040, or line 50, Form 1040A) more than $1,000
OR
you either expect your withholding and refundable credits to be less than the smaller of
90% of the tax shown on your 2017 tax return, or
100% of the tax shown on your 2016 tax return.
If you just use your current year (2017) taxes for your 1040ES, then you'll be paying 100% of the 2017 taxes, which will make you safe from penalties.
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