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Puzzling over estimated taxes on dividend / cap gains heavy income

I'm a year into early retirement. My living expenses come from saved cash and from returns-on-investments (interest, dividends, capital gains distributions, capital gains from stocks). I need to figure out what estimated taxes to send in this year. It isn't as simple as using the 1040-ES formula. That assumes you're making your money through earned income. A lot of my income should be eligible for the lower qualified dividend / capital gains rate. Example: Interest and un-qualified dividends: $8K Qualified dividends and capital gains: $32K Let's say I take the standard deduction, and contribute to an HSA, for a total of $16,700 in deductions. Adjusted income should be $23.3K. Using the 1040-ES formula, estimated tax to pay through the year would be about $2566. This assumes the tax rate is 10% and 12%. But the tax rate on qualified dividends / LT cap gains is either 0% (adjusted income under $39K) or 15% (for higher incomes until you're really raking it in). If I have a similar situation, can I just not send in estimated taxes? Or do I lay out the money and then hopefully get it back when I file next year? (Related: If I sell stock, and make another $40 grand in long term cap gains, the estimation formula would put a lot of the income in the 22% bracket, but really it should be taxed at 15%. Can I use that figure?) Thanks!
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AJ
Level 6

Puzzling over estimated taxes on dividend / cap gains heavy income

Try using TutboTax's TaxCaster application:

https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/calculators/taxcaster/