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If you compare this year's tax return and the tax return from last year, did you withhold more or less Federal withholding tax? Did income go up but withholding tax stay the same?
Do you have a Tax Due on your tax return? Did you have enough withholding taken out? Do you have other income like interest or dividends?
If you do not pay in enough tax from withholding and estimates, you may have to pay a penalty for underpayment of estimated tax. Even if you are getting a refund you can still owe a penalty for not paying in evenly during the year. Generally, most taxpayers will avoid this penalty if they owe less than $1,000 in tax after subtracting their withholdings and credits, or if they paid at least 90% of the tax for the current year, or 100% of the tax shown on the return for the prior year, whichever is smaller. It is included in your tax due or reduces your refund.
You might be able to eliminate it or at least reduce it. You can go to Federal Taxes tab or Personal tab, under Other Tax Situations and select Start by the Underpayment Penalties. You will answer a series of questions that may reduce or eliminate the penalty. Or you can elect to have the IRS figure the penalty for you. It's form 2210.
It's under
Federal or Personal (for Home & Business Desktop)
Other Tax Situations
Additional Tax Payments
Underpayment Penalties - Click the Start or update button
Even if you have withholding, you can be assessed a penalty if you owe more than $1000 when you file (because you did not have enough withheld.)
You can decline Turbotax's recommendation to pay a penalty, and wait and see if the IRS sends a bill for a penalty. If they do, you can request an abatement (forgiveness) as a first-timer.
In the mean time, you need to change your W-4s so you have more taxes withheld. Try the IRS withholding calculator.
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