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refund in 2022 has nothing to do with penalty in 2023
line 8 of the 2210 is one of the targets to avoid penalties. if you used Turbotax last year it should have transferred
if not see the 2210 instructions for computing line 8
in its simplest form line 8 would be from line 24 on the 2022 1040. but that are credits and additional taxes that might not be taken into account for line8
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i2210.pdf
No. Your tax liability is the number that you see on line 24 of your 1040 for last year. Your liability is not affected by the amount you had withheld or the amount you received as a refund. It is calculated based on your the tax on your taxable income minus your nonrefundable credits.
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