Once the IRS receives your return, TurboTax has no control over how long it takes the IRS to process it and get the refund to you. TurboTax provides an estimate based on averages and receives no feedback from the IRS about your return as it processes through the IRS system.
The IRS says 9 out of 10 filers who efile and choose direct deposit will get their refunds within 21 days. Some returns are processed fairly quickly, while others require additional processing due to specific items in the return. Some are pulled at random for more thorough investigation.
If you efiled, log into your Online Account and at the Tax Home check the efile status. Does it show "accepted", or does it have a different status?
If that showed your efiled return was accepted for processing, then you can use the IRS website tool below to follow the status of your Federal refund. NOTE: You have to wait at least 24 hours after being accepted before using the tool.
https://www.irs.gov/Refunds
NOTE: When using that tool, use only the Federal refund amount, and not any total refund amount that includes a state refund.
The amount to use is on your Federal Form 1040, Line 21a.
NOTE: By law, the IRS will not begin issuing a refund on tax returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit until after February 15. So filers with those credits likely won't get their refunds until late February, or in some cases, early March.
To track a state refund:
https://ttlc.intuit.com/community/refund-status/help/how-do-i-track-my-state-refund/00/25571
