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Your refund is irrelevant, what counts is your tax liability, what the government keeps over the year. For example, if you have $5000 of withholding and get a $1000 refund, your tax liability was $4000. The energy credit can't be more than your tax liability.
The credit is 30% of the cost, assuming you meet the efficiency requirements, up to certain maximums.
For central A/C, or efficient gas or oil furnace, the credit is 30% up to a maximum of $600 for each component (a traditional system might include both A/C and furnace, they are listed separately and separately eligible. For a heat pump system or biomass system, the credit is 30% with a maximum of $2000.
Read the instructions and make sure the system you want to buy meets the requirements. "Energy Star" is not enough, the rules are more specific.
Certainly, it depends on your individual circumstances.
..BUT the fact you get a refund every year isn't critical...what matters is if you get ALL your prior withholding returned every year. i.e. if you have (say) $5000 of federal total withholding from your pay, and you normally get $1000 refunded.....that means you still let the Feds keep $4000 of the total you prepaid thru withholding......the (30% of cost up-to $600) credit is used against those $4000 that remain, so you'd get $600 more refunded. However, if you always get ALL your withholding back without that credit, then you don't get any more.
It's called a non-refundable credit for situations where a person normally didn't really have to pay anything (or owe anything) in the first place.
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Beyond that, it still may be worth it. In the years beyond where I went from a SEER 10, OEM AC unit to a SEER 16 SEER scroll compressor, my summer electric usage dropped ~33% (monthly ~900 kwh to 600kwh) AND I was using 2degrees lower daily setting too. Not only that, but the scroll compressor was far quieter too...such that I could actually have conversations with family on my patio when it was running.
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