Yes, the expected return on the contract is the amount a plan participant is likely to receive over many years.
This is a figure used to calculate the taxable portion of your retirement distributions under the General Rule in New Jersey.
To calculate it, you check your life expectancy using the federal actuarial tables. Follow this link for that. When you have the number, you multiply it by the amount you will be paid annually.
For example, your retirement benefit will pay $2,000 per month, $24,000 per year starting the month you turn 65. You check the table and it says you are expected to live 19.66 more years, so your expected return is:
$24,000 X 19.66 = $471,840
Follow this link for more details about New Jersey's taxation of retirement plans.
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