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Yes, the estimated refund date is based on the experiences of most people in the past, but it isn't a guaranteed date. If the IRS shows your refund was approved, it should be sent soon.
The IRS says they send refunds in 21 days for 9 out of 10 efiled returns. The date is an estimate, an educated guess, a rough idea. In other words, it should not be relied on. The IRS can not say how long that other 1 of the 10 will take. All you can do now is, wait. Wait for the pay off of your interest free loan to the government. Did you believe that the IRS is omnipotent, omnibenevolent and omniscient ?
Check out https://www.irs.gov/wheres-my-refund
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