no way to know for sure. but consider that the IRS was not processing paper returns for about two months. in addition, it's still working on getting stimulus checks and I'll bet the staffing is not up to normal during tax season.
from the IRS website
Processing Delays for Paper Tax Returns
We continue to process electronic and paper tax returns, issue refunds, and accept payments. We’re experiencing delays in processing paper tax returns due to limited staffing. If you already filed a paper return, we will process it in the order we received it.
Do not file a second tax return or call the IRS
MAILED RETURNS
Per the IRS website IRS Operations During COVID-19: Mission-critical functions continue: The IRS is not currently able to process individual paper tax returns. If you already have filed via paper but it has not yet been processed, do not file a second tax return or write to the IRS to inquire about the status of your return or your economic impact payment. Paper returns will be processed once processing centers are able to reopen.
If you mail a tax return (or a payment) to the IRS, it is a good idea to use a mailing service that will track it like UPS or certified mail so you will know it was received.
When you mail a tax return, you need to attach any documents showing tax withheld, such as your W-2’s or any 1099’s.
TurboTax will not know anything about your mailed return, and will continue to show “Ready to Mail” on your account. TurboTax will not know that you put your tax return in an envelope and took it to a mailbox. TurboTax does not get updates on mailed (or e-filed) returns.
When the IRS finally opens its mail and begins to process mailed returns you can check the status on the IRS site. https://www.irs.gov/refunds
State returns have to be mailed to the state.
https://ttlc.intuit.com/questions/1899433-how-do-i-track-my-state-refund
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics/irs-mail-trailers-covid/index.html