I’m using the free Verizon and I’m only get 40$ back on my return, if i buy the 40$ turbo tax am i more likely to get more money back?

If you have not submitted it yet, you can restart them if not submitted yet (bottom right on the bar) and try deluxe and see and if not switch back to free

No, if the free version accepted your information and did not require you to upgrade then your refund will be the same with the $40 version.