Does the tax-break for unemployment reduce my NOL and become a penalty or do they cut a check?

Hi! I'm a CPA with TurboTax. If I am understanding your question correctly you are concerned about the NOL decreasing for subsequent tax returns. If anything, your NOL should be increasing since your taxable income would be further in the negative by up to 10,200. You wouldn't receive another refund since you had no taxable income on your original return.