Estimates are based on the numbers you enter and the number of dependents you have entered on your return and the changes you say will or will not happen.
If you, for instance, enter that you will have $15,000 withheld and end up only have $10,000 withheld, then you will end up getting less in a refund. If you say you will make $38,000 and you have 3 kids but end up making $60,000, the calculation of EIC would be totally different.
Estimates are only as good as the data and assumptions entered. If your taxes are simple, you can always use your tax rates throughout the year to compare what you are having withheld vs what you are liable for to see what your refund or amount due should end up being.
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