What do you mean by "actual refund?" Where does it say $3134?
The refund tracker is dynamic and may change with every entry. The amount of your refund is not finalized until you have completed your return.
We cannot see your return. However, one way to feel confident is to compare your previous tax return with the current year. The format of the 1040 has changed from 2018 to 2019, so you cannot compare line numbers. Be sure to review by line description. Some important lines to consider are total income, taxable income, tax due, total payments, and refund or balance due. This will give you an idea of whether or not you may have left out anything before you file.
Also, take into consideration any job changes, life changes (marriage, new home, dependents, etc.) that may affect your return. Consider whether or not you have included all sources of income on your return, such as W2's, interest, dividends, or any income from self-employment. Review the Deductions & Credits section of TurboTax to make sure you have taken advantage of all potential tax breaks. Finally, be sure to run the review on the return to look for any potential errors.