If it sayes my estimated time of return how likely is it that it will be their on that said date?

Your tax return is the form you send to the government that shows your income and calculates your tax. The money the government sends back to you is your refund.

It's not at all likely that you will get your refund exactly on the estimated date. It could be earlier or later. The estimated date that TurboTax gives you is simply 21 days after you filed. It's not based on any information about your tax return.