In the most simple terms ... the withholding on the distribution may or may not be enough to cover the federal taxes owed when added to your other income + the 10% penalty.
So at your income level you are in the 22% tax bracket + the 10% penalty means you will owe 33% so you are 12% short in the withholding that needs to be made up somewhere else (like from a paycheck) or you will pay on your tax return and if you owe more than $1000 then the IRS will also add an underpayment penalty + interest.
