Yes that's how it works. You will get it back because the tax went down so you get back more of your withholding. If you don't have enough tax to use up the credit then the difference will carryover to the next year's return.
For a Refundable credit, even if it is more than the tax on your return you can actually get the whole amount added on to your refund.
How are you paying the "....paid $10k+ in 2024"? I thought the 10,000 was your tax. Are you sending in estimated quarterly payments?
