Here's a post about claiming Exempt on your W4. This is from 2021 but explains it. You can't claim exempt unless you qualify. You can claim more dependents to have less withholding taken out.
https://ttlc.intuit.com/community/taxes/discussion/exempt-on-w4-and-pay-quarterly-estimated-tax-inst...
It's not whether you get a refund or tax due. And the withholding doesn't matter. It's if you have a tax liability on your income. Look at your 1040 line 22 for total tax. The credit can only reduce the tax to zero. If your non-refundable credits reduce your tax to 0 you will get back all the withholding and payments and any Refundable Credits. Unless you owe for something else like self employment tax or the 10% Early Withdrawal Penalty on IRA withdrawals.
