The absolute truth is that nobody knows. There was at one time a procedure we could look at to figure out when a refund was likely to show up but that procedure went out the window a couple of years back.
The IRS started tax year 2021 with a six month backlog of correspondence. They haven't been able to process a lot of things in a timely manner for all of 2022 as you have had to deal with. They have now hired a bunch more folks and apparently processed a big backlog of 2020 returns recently. So things seem to be improving. But how much and how fast? nobody really knows.
The IRS has been making direct deposits to some accounts when dealing with amended returns. Which is new for them. And it doesn't seem to follow any real pattern. Some people get it, some people don't. We know you have to have an account previously set up with them. But that's all that we know.
Calling the IRS is the only way to find out the information that you're looking for. And that is always a difficult thing to do during tax season. I always say "Wait 60 days before you call" but what we always did and said isn't working anymore so I would call when you are ready to wait on hold for several hours. If you have the time then go ahead and find out what's going on with your money.
My advice when calling the IRS - always call as early in the morning as possible. Those queues fill up fast. And have something to do while you're on hold. Their hold music is terrible. Here are the IRS phone numbers (scroll down to the bottom of the page). Good luck!
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