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After you file
If your income remained the same and you have the same employer, then refund amounts generally stay about the same. Minnesota has a graduated tax rate so it is possible, but not common, for your withholdings to be spot on with a graduated tax rate.
Walk back through and double check your W2 state entries in the federal section to make sure you did not make a mistake. If they match what is on your W-2 then find your 2020 W-2 and see if you had less withheld for the state.
You can also preview your state 1040 by clicking Tax Tools>>Tools>>Preview My 1040.
When looking at your M1 scroll to like 10 to see your tax liability then to line 23 to see your total payments. The lines in between will tell you if you had any credits that lowered your tax due to make your refund $0.
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