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I can't evaluate that refund situation for you....one can have a big refund, and still owe a penalty.

Ignoring he current 85% issue, if your withholding (and only the withholding) for 2018 didn't qualify for one of the exception limits.

Then....IF you paid uneven Quarterly estimates....or did not pay all 4 qtr estimates.  One can have a refund and a penalty unless you go thru the Annualized income calculations (when the 2210/2210AI is working right).
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But there is a New Containment FAQ (today)...and a Sign-Up...with an expected fix date of sometime on 22 Feb:

<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://ttlc.intuit.com/questions/4621180">https://ttlc.intuit.com/questions/4621180</a>
____________*Answers are correct to the best of my knowledge when posted, but should not be considered to be legal or official tax advice.*