There are several reasons why your refund can change.
Did you have a child that turned 17? If so, they no longer qualify for the $2,000 Child Tax Credit, instead they qualify for the $500 Other Dependent Credit. In order to claim the Child Tax Credit your child must be under 17 at the end of the year. This would be the most reasonable explanation with a $1,500 change.
Other reasons could be an increase in income which would decrease your Earned Income Tax Credit.
Or less taxes withheld from your W-2.
If you did not have a child that turned 17, then you can go line by line and compare your last years return to this year to find the area that has changed and caused your refund to decrease. This will tell you exactly where the change is coming from.
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