I wish I had found this thread a few hours ago. I had the exact same problem with the Activation dialog on both my SurfacePros. Intuit Support provided me with a download of TT Home & Business 2022 for Windows, and after uninstall and reinstall, no change.
Then I started trying stuff. Turns out that all I had to do was hit the Tab key a few times on the Activation dialog. Once the Key field turned pink and it said 'Enter A Valid License Code', I was able to type in the box just fine, and all is well now.
