The date provided by TurboTax is just an estimate.
Only the IRS and your State control when and if a Federal or State tax refund is Approved and Issued.
Once a tax return has been Accepted by the IRS or a State, TurboTax receives no further information concerning the tax return or the status of any tax refund.
If accepted by the IRS use the federal tax refund website to check the refund status - https://www.irs.gov/refunds
If accepted by the state use this TurboTax support FAQ to check the state tax refund status - https://ttlc.intuit.com/turbotax-support/en-us/help-article/tax-refund/track-state-refund/L3jgO8PGs_...
After the tax return has been Accepted by the IRS (meaning only that they received the return) it will be in the Processing mode until the tax refund has been Approved and then an Issue Date will be available on the IRS website.