1099

I will have a small amount of w-2 income this year and the rest will be 1099.  If the net amount on the Schedule C is about $40,000 after expenses and as it moves over to 1040  and then basically is zero or would have given an refund, do I need to pay the quarterly tax?  And if so, how do I estimate it as it as the income varies.  Should i just pay a percentage of the quarterly income(top line)?