I know it doesn't seem right, but TurboTax is calculating your refund based on what is entered on your tax return. There is no estimating or being overly conservative.
If you have already verified that all of the figures on your 1099-R form were entered correctly, then this is the correct refund for what you have entered.
As far as being pushed into a higher tax bracket, if you are single, you go from 10% to 12% at $9701, you go from 12% to 22% at $39,476 and from 22% to 24% at $84,201.
The other factor that may affect your refund is possibly losing tax credits or deductions.
If you were getting a Saver's Credit before and the extra income pushed you past $32,000, you would lose the credit entirely. Even if your income is lower, you may have reduced the credit amount.
If you have a 1095-A for health insurance, the related credit can turn into a repayment with extra income added.
If you had a Student Loan interest deduction, it may have been limited or phased completely by the higher income. If total income was above $70,000, you would have a limitation, if it was above $85,000, no deduction is allowed.
It isn't possible to explain in a detail manner exactly why your refund changed so much without have access to your entire tax return, but many people have asked similar questions and have been shocked by what a little more income does to their tax refund.
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