You are correct about needing the tax on the income plus the withdrawal penalty. At $200,000 you are in the 24% tax bracket but may have deductions to take you down to 22%. Companies normally only withhold 20% which would leave you short for the tax plus the penalty.
Then subtract any credits to which you are entitled. Two children would be $4,000 credit plus any other credits for which you may qualify.
I recommend using:
The W4 planner will determine your tax liability despite not needing a W4.
We do not do tax planning here at Turbo Tax.
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