Fanfare, well my original question was confusing. If I stick to the Fed numbers as you asked, the change in Fed return (on the counter) was -$4400 after we added the (previously untaxed) $10,000 early 401K withdrawal to the form.
Child tax credit went from ~$2000 to ~$700
EIC went from ~$4300 to ~$2200
If tax penalty for $10,000 is ~$1000, then all seems good/reasonable to me.
She still gets some $ back due to the EIC + child credit (she claims "single"/no withholding on W4).
Thanks for talking this through.
