Retirement tax questions

Thanks TurboTaxDiane!  I believe I understand this much better now.  However, in both "Methods" above you have the statement "Figure your tax for 2015."  Do you mean 2016?  Also, I did get one payment from Social Security in January 2016 and then repaid all of the 2015 and 2016 payments back.  Does the negative amount shown on my 2016 SSA-1099, Box 5, still go on Form 1040, Line 20a?