I saw that reference. The progressive tax rate does not explain how going from a $100k distribution to a $150k distribution incurs an 8.5% marginal NY tax rate while the next $50k (to $200k) incurs a marginal tax rate of about 4.8%. Something has to be wrong with the numbers provided. Income needs to get above $1M before the marginal tax rate gets above 6.85%.
The federal marginal tax rates are suspect as well. For example, I find it odd that the federal marginal tax rate on the first $50k of distribution is 26% instead of 22%. For MFJ, the 22% tax bracket for 2022 runs from $83,550 to $178,150 of taxable income. Adding $50k to the original $110k is only $160k, and that's before subtracting the standard deduction.
Maybe TurboTax is adding an underpayment penalty that isn't being taken into account. To avoid that I usually add some fixed amount of Q1 estimated tax so that the results always show a refund instead of a balance due no matter how much of a distribution is entered. (One can also tell TurboTax not to calculate the underpayment penalty, but it's not as easy to find those settings for both federal and state.)
