Generally, estimated tax payments made before 1/17/23 would be accounted for on your 2022 return. That would definitely be the case if you mailed in the payment with a voucher labeled 2022 in large print.
BUT, if you made that payment to the IRS online and indicated that the payment was to be applied to your 2023 taxes, then you would account for that payment on your 2023 return. And yes, you would then be short one estimated payment for your 2022 taxes.
