carryover of foreign tax credit - why it does not work?

 I have paid foreign taxes in 2017 and 2018. Than was able to use these credit partially - in 2017 and 2018 returns. So I fill out 1116 this year, put all numbers for used and disallowed credits. But it does not change the final return at all. I suspect that the reason is - this year I am getting money back from Uncle Sam, while 2 previous years I owed him.

Is it right, or the reason is somewhere else?

To increase my chances for the carryover next year, should I ignore quarterly estimated taxes?