Choosing Exempt on a W-4

I have been on the same job for two years and always receive a tax refund. Annual salary is $20,080.  I file single and have no kids, no one else can claim me as a dependent. I wanted to change my W-4 from now until December. What would happen as far as filing my taxes next year? Also will the amount owed be taken from the refund or will I have to pay it back, receive no refund, and pay a penalty?

 

Thank You