Your tax **liability** was $9500. That's what you owed to the IRS. The fact that you paid $10,000 in advance and got a $500 refund (for example) does not change the fact that your tax owed was $9500.
As long as your income and tax situation is similar for 2017 and your tax liability is more than $7500, you would get the full credit refunded as part of your 2017 tax refund, even if you also had $10,000 withheld again. (In that case you would get back $8000.)
