I don't think you are missing anything.
I suspect the issue is that TurboTax can't tell on the Carryover Worksheet (that's what you're looking at, right?) that this state tax refund is not simply a regular refund that would be on 1099-G but includes a TABOR refund.
And this announcement that the TABOR refunds would not be taxable is a relatively recent development.
So I would say that changing the carryover amount may be necessary. I hope it does not impair your ability to e-file (some overrides do).
Let us know if something else comes up.
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