Medicare and Social Security taxes do not impact your Income taxes (either Federal or State). Only your Federal Income Tax withholding affects your Federal tax liability and State Income Tax withholdings impact your State tax liability.
To calculate a good estimate for 2023 you can use 110% of your 2022 total tax liability on line 24, less any anticipated credit amounts from lines 27-29, less your anticipated W2 withholding amounts. Divide the result by 4 and you have an amount to submit each quarter on form 1040ES.
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