You can rely on the estimate since it is based on your current return and circumstances. The projected refund that TurboTax displays as a potential for 2023 is based on the income, deductions, dependents and credits that you are eligible for in 2022. There would also be a component for those changes that are already known such as the tax rates for 2023.
This doesn't mean that it's an exact amount simply because there can be any changes that are not anticipated at this time. Keep in mind that your situation could change such as a child no longer qualifying as your dependent. Age would be factored in based on 2022 tax return data.
These are some pieces of information that may help answer your question.
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