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After you file
1) yes, the state does presume the federal is correct. Give it a few years and the IRS will send files to the State so the state can match the AGIs together. but for the near term, the state presumes the federal return is correct.
2) the IRS doesn't share the status of your return with anyone but you as its confidential information. So Turbo Tax doesn't know anything else
3) as far as the WMR tool, think about it, there are millions of returns sitting in enveloped stacked up at the IRS. They haven't even looked at them! why would you think there would be something on the website about the status. The lack of a status means no one has looked at it yet - it's stored in a 40 foot truck at the IRS service centers with all the other millions of paper files!
4) and to set your expectations, it's not wait "up to 6 months". it's expect it to be 6-9 months! The IRS website currently states they have finished all tax returns received through December, 2021 and I can see on some Face Book group pages that many are seeing movement on their paper returns submitted in Feb. So if the IRS is working on Feb paper filed returns (and they do work in the order received), we are already at the 6 month backlog point....so assume 6-9 months is where it is going to land from the time you submitted your paper return.
the IRS is making progress- this is taken from their website over the past few weeks:
As of June 17, 2022, we had 11.2 million unprocessed individual returns which include returns received before 2022, and new tax year 2021 returns. Of these, 2 million returns require error correction or other special handling, and 9.2 million are paper returns waiting to be reviewed and processed.
As of July 15, 2022, we had 11 million unprocessed individual tax year 2021 returns. Of these, 1.9 million returns require error correction or other special handling, and 9.1 million are paper returns waiting to be reviewed and processed.
As of July 22, 2022, we had 10.5 million unprocessed individual tax year 2021 returns. Of these, 1.7 million returns require error correction or other special handling, and 8.8 million are paper returns waiting to be reviewed and processed.