If the IRS says to expect a deposit today, it can show up from 1 business day early to 2 business days later, per the ACH system rules.
If you used refund transfer to pay your Turbotax fees from your refund, then the IRS is sending your refund to SBTPG. They have to receive the deposit, process it and send it on to your regular bank. That may add 1 additional business day.
