@fanfare
There are currently 9.2mm paper files awaiting processing per the IRS website. To clear them ALL in the 26 weeks remaining in the year means 350,000 need to be processed per week . Best case: if they accomplish that, the ones processed in December would have been the ones received in June, so still 6 months for a taxpayer to wait for their refund.
Another way to look at it: Let's assume it takes two months to process each month of paper files:
February paper submissions are completed by late August - 6 month backlog
March paper submissions are completed by late October - 7 month backlog
April paper submissions are completed by late December - 8 month backlog
then the IRS hits the slower submission time of the year and can really begin to catch up:
May, June, July, August and September submissions are completed by late January - 4 month backlog
October, November, December submissions are completed by late February - caught up!!
The problem with the paper files is not only do they all have to be data entered, but to the extent they were NOT created by a DIY software package, they can be wraught with math errors and other typos and missing information that a DIY package causes you to fix before submitting.
Then there are the efiled returns. Those probably go quicker because the software packages that created them eliminate a lot of errors before they are submitted. The big problems, as we've seen on these boards, are RRC and CTC.
Once the next tax season roles around, there won't be 2022 tax season issues with RRC, CTC, unemployment,etc so a larger labor force plus taxpayers who 'see the light' on electronic filing, should help the IRS 'steady the ship'...but getting all caught up by December 31, that is a tall order.
