Don't understand my withholding problems

I'm married filing jointly. After last year (2018), I owed $3738 in Fed taxes (which was ~$2500 more than 2017…thanks Trump). Now, for 2019, I owe almost $6,000 in Fed taxes.

One issue is that I moved ~$5k from an old pension fund from an old job into an existing Roth IRA, so I know I would have to take the hit from that. What I wish I could do with the online version of Turbo tax is remove this one time pension move and see how that alone affected things, but I can't seem to figure out if this is possible. It seems like I've got to buy the hard copy version of TurboTax to play these what if games.

 

What is even more frustrating is when I head over to the IRS W4 calculator and enter in all of my current pay stub withholding, it is telling me that I should expect a refund for this tax year, which makes zero sense to me based on what I owed for 2018. I really don't want to have to pay an accountant to figure this stuff out for me but don't know what to do next.