And they do NOT process returns FIFO ... all returns go into the "pipeline" for processing and some will slide right thru and be approved quickly. Some will be stopped by various "filters" for various things ... some returns may be stopped by more than one. Some filters will take longer to clear than others ... some may require human interactions and/or a letter to be responded to which can add weeks to a processing timeline. Some will be pulled for review and/or an audit ... you never know which ones will get "lucky".
All the PATH returns will be stopped at some point ... but no one knows where in the pipeline that is ... if it is at the beginning the returns still must be processed once the 15th has come and gone. Maybe it is at the end and all that needs to happen is the date to come to release them. Remember that they will have MILLIONS of PATH returns to process and that not all will be released right away ... it is basically a crap shoot so you should never count on any certain date to receive the refund and you will not be disappointed.
